Group of Copenhagen Uncovers Seven Betting Irregularities FIFA Missed

The Council of Europe-backed Group of Copenhagen conducted a comprehensive integrity monitoring operation across all 104 matches of the tournament. This international network, operating under the Macolin Convention, coordinates efforts to detect, sanction, and prevent manipulation of sports competitions. The organization released a summary of its findings on Wednesday, though the complete report remains unpublished.

What the Watchdog Found

The watchdog logged seven incidents warranting further examination during the competition. These alerts, classified as “yellow notices,” represent initial indications pointing to possible irregularities that require additional scrutiny. The Group of Copenhagen issues such notices when several different indications of irregularities emerge, which can include unexplained fluctuations in odds, rumors on social media, or source information.

The organization employs a four-tier color-coded alert system to categorize events:

• Green: Normal activity with no concerns
• Yellow: Slightly increased alert requiring monitoring
• Orange: Increased alert warranting investigation
• Red: Highest alert level indicating serious concerns

No orange or red alerts emerged during the tournament. Yellow notices do not necessarily indicate match-fixing occurred, sources briefed on the report confirmed. These alerts can describe legitimate market behaviors, including bookmakers using prediction markets to manage financial risk rather than evidence of corruption.

The watchdog placed 15 matches under increased surveillance, particularly during the final round of group-stage matches. Furthermore, the organization analyzed 12 major controversies in light of integrity risks. The monitoring operation marked the first time the Group of Copenhagen provided continuous oversight of prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, which operate in a fragmented and rapidly evolving regulatory environment with rules varying by jurisdiction.

These prediction markets presented unprecedented challenges for monitoring. “These prediction markets raise unprecedented issues: they allow betting on a very wide range of events, often anonymously and using payment methods that are difficult to trace,” the Group of Copenhagen stated in its report. Monitoring them represented a first for an international competition.

How These Differ From FIFA’s Report

FIFA’s Integrity Task Force announced on Tuesday that it identified no suspicious betting activity or indications of match manipulation in connection with any fixture across the entire competition. The task force characterized its findings as “the result of a collaborative effort by a large number of independent expert groups”.

Conversely, the Group of Copenhagen detailed seven yellow notices just one day after FIFA’s announcement. Both organizations serve as members of FIFA’s Integrity Task Force, yet they reached starkly different conclusions. The Group of Copenhagen and the Council of Europe participate in the same task force that declared the tournament clean.

FIFA defended its position after being contacted about the discrepancy. The governing body explained that betting-monitoring reports and other relevant data from task force members were analyzed and shared among members according to operational procedures. “As a result, no suspicious betting activity or indications of match manipulation in connection with any fixture was identified,” FIFA stated.

The divergence stems partly from how each organization interprets monitoring data. Christian Kalb, a gambling industry expert, explained that yellow notices can have legitimate explanations. Bookmakers might use prediction markets to hedge risk when too many bettors favor a strong favorite, essentially purchasing insurance against potential large losses. This practice, while creating unusual trading patterns, does not indicate manipulation.

The Group of Copenhagen acknowledged this complexity. “The Group of Copenhagen’s notices can be explained by atypical behaviors such as changes in odds or hedging liquidities, there are many explanations that are not manipulations,” sources told The Athletic. The major concern arises “when there may be a conflict of interest and potential inside information on those issues”.

The sheer scale of FIFA World Cup betting complicates analysis. “The volume of betting in a World Cup is so huge, it is very difficult to make any extrapolations from that,” an expert noted. Each match represents billions of pounds in wagers.

The Themba Zwane Red Card Incident Opens Tournament Under Scrutiny

Co-hosts Mexico defeated South Africa 2-0 in the tournament opener at Estadio Azteca on June 11, but the match produced more red cards than goals. Bafana Bafana finished with nine men following dismissals to Yaya Sithole and Themba Zwane, creating an unwelcome piece of World Cup history.

Sithole received the first dismissal in the 49th minute for bringing down Mexico’s Brian Gutiérrez just outside the penalty area. The match took a more controversial turn in the 84th minute when Zwane, who had entered as a substitute in the 61st minute, received a straight red card following a VAR review.

The Mamelodi Sundowns midfielder grappled with Roberto Alvarado, coming around the back of his opponent with his left arm and making contact with Alvarado’s face. Brazilian referee Wilton Sampaio initially allowed play to continue before the Video Assistant Referee called him to the pitchside monitor. After reviewing the footage, Sampaio produced a red card.

ITV co-commentator Ally McCoist described the decision as “extremely harsh”. South Africa manager Hugo Broos expressed his frustration in the post-match press conference. “The first red card, I don’t think we have to say something about it but the second red card I think the Mexican player blocked my player, that happens, the referee decides something else so it is a little bit [a] pity that we have to finish this game with nine players,” Broos stated.

Spain’s Shocking Goalless Draw With Cape Verde Triggers $4.8 Million in Trades

Cape Verde produced one of the tournament’s most memorable upsets in their World Cup debut, holding Spain to a 0-0 draw on June 15 in Atlanta. The result triggered massive trading activity on cryptocurrency-based prediction platforms, with Polymarket recording $4.8 million in volume on markets for Spain failing to win the match. The Group of Copenhagen initially flagged the fixture before reclassifying it as normal after FIFA’s Integrity Task Force found no suspicious betting activity.

Polymarket’s Unusual Trading Volume

The American cryptocurrency-based prediction platform witnessed extraordinary betting patterns on the Spain-Cape Verde fixture. One trader operating under the username “fishalive” converted approximately £339,000 into more than £3.73 million by taking the “No” position against a Spain victory. The user purchased roughly £339,862 worth of “No Spain win” shares at odds reflecting just 9% probability before kickoff. After the market settled following the goalless draw, the payout reached exactly £3,734,752, making it one of the most profitable single Polymarket trades of the entire 2026 World Cup.

Conversely, other participants suffered substantial losses. One bettor staked £794,160 on Spain to defeat Cape Verde. Due to the heavily favored odds, this wager would have netted a profit of only around £68,253 had Spain won. Instead, the match ended scoreless and that sum vanished. Industry observers described the situation as the definition of high risk, low reward.

Traditional betting markets showed similar confidence in Spain. According to BetMGM, only 10 percent of tickets predicted a draw, and those bets amounted to just 1 percent of the money wagered. A substantial 94 percent of the money went on a Spain win, even with La Roja priced at -1000. Betting odds placed a draw at roughly 10-to-1, implying the likelihood was priced at approximately 9 percent. Jeff Sherman, VP of risk management and oddsmaking at Westgate SuperBook, and Borgata sportsbook director Thomas Gable noted that a Spain win was heavily used in parlays that all collapsed with the result.

How a 91% Favorite Failed to Score

Spain entered as the second-ranked team in the world and the betting favorite to win the tournament. The European champions dominated possession with 74 percent of the ball and outshot Cape Verde 27 to 6. Spain completed nearly 400 passes in the final third of the pitch, while Cape Verde could only manage 16 at the other end. Their possession and shot volume created an Expected Goals tally of 2.7, suggesting Spain should have won the match 3-0 on most days.

However, Spain could not break through a resolute Cape Verde defense. The match marked the first major shock of the 2026 World Cup in a game without a goal. Spain managed only one shot on target until the 38th minute. Striker Mikel Oyarzabal, branded the key in Spain’s attack with Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams struggling with injury, took 31 minutes to register a touch of the ball. The ball speed proved far too slow from minute one, and the pattern of play never materialized for the European champions.

Spain introduced stars Yamal and Williams from the bench in the final minutes attempting to break through the determined defenders, but they had no luck. Attack after attack crested and broke without success. The Spanish completed 734 passes compared to Cape Verde’s 205, yet expected goals proved meaningless. For Spain, this represented a failure and potentially an all-time low.

Ferran Torres’ Disallowed Goal and Extended VAR Review

Spain’s dominant victory over Saudi Arabia featured an unusual controversy that drew attention from integrity monitors. The Group of Copenhagen flagged the match among its seven incidents requiring examination, specifically focusing on a disallowed goal that underwent an exceptionally prolonged VAR review.

The Three-and-a-Half Minute Delay

A three-and-a-half-minute delay by the video assistant referee technology preceded the decision to overturn Ferran Torres’ late goal in Spain’s win[49]. Torres tapped home Pedro Porro’s low cross, and the linesman initially concluded he was onside, though the official appeared less than convinced. The goal would have given Spain a fifth strike in the closing moments.

The crowd responded with sustained booing as the minutes ticked by during the lengthy review process. Lip readers captured Torres’ desperate plea during the extended check. “Please, let it be a goal… please,” the forward repeated while waiting for the final verdict. The unusual duration of the review amplified tension inside the stadium, particularly given Spain’s commanding position in the match.

After several minutes of examination, VAR officials overturned the linesman’s original call and ruled the goal offside. The decision eliminated what Torres clearly hoped would be his moment to score. The extended nature of the review, combined with the match context and betting implications, led the Group of Copenhagen to classify the incident as one warranting further scrutiny.

Spain’s 4-0 Victory Over Saudi Arabia

The disallowed goal occurred during extra time of Spain’s comprehensive 4-0 triumph. Despite the comfortable margin, the VAR decision carried significance for FIFA World Cup betting markets. The offside determination hinged on technical positioning rules that measure body parts capable of scoring goals.

The offside rule considers any body part that can legally score, specifically excluding arms but including shoulders and heads. In this case, VAR officials determined Torres’ shoulder or head had moved fractionally beyond Saudi Arabia’s last defender when his teammate kicked the ball toward him. The review showed the call was extremely close. The offside position gets determined at the moment the ball leaves the passer’s foot, not when the receiving player makes contact.

Bettors who wagered on specific score lines or total goals faced immediate consequences. According to betting platform rules, if a goal gets disallowed by VAR, it does not count for settlement purposes. Bets are never re-settled based on temporary in-game decisions. Only the final confirmed match result after all VAR reviews determines payouts.

The three-and-a-half-minute delay created particular challenges for live betting markets. Traders must quickly assess whether officials will confirm or overturn decisions, yet the extended review period in this case exceeded typical VAR timeframes. The prolonged uncertainty affected odds adjustments across multiple betting categories, from correct score markets to total goals wagered.

Spain’s emphatic victory occurred against the backdrop of heightened scrutiny following earlier tournament controversies. The match demonstrated how even dominant performances containing clear outcomes can generate incidents that integrity monitors flag for examination. The extended VAR review, combined with the goal’s timing and potential betting market impact, justified the Group of Copenhagen’s decision to include this incident among its seven notices requiring additional analysis.

The Only Custom Prediction Market Created

Polymarket launched a betting market on July 2 asking “Will Folarin Balogun play against Belgium?”. The platform opened this market on the same day the striker was shown his red card. FIFA’s Disciplinary Committee did not confirm Balogun’s availability until July 5, three days after the prediction market went live.

Sources briefed on the Group of Copenhagen’s report revealed that no other such markets were opened for the other 14 players who received red cards during the tournament. Balogun’s case stood alone as the only custom prediction market created for a red card suspension. None of the 14 other dismissed players had their bans suspended.

Why FIFA Lifted This Suspension

FIFA’s Disciplinary Committee invoked Article 27 of the Disciplinary Code, which allows the judicial body to fully or partially suspend the implementation of a disciplinary measure. The committee subjected Balogun to a probationary period of one year, meaning the red card technically remains on his record. If Balogun commits another infringement of similar nature and gravity during that period, he will serve his one-game ban.

President Donald Trump lobbied FIFA to lift the suspension, making three calls to FIFA starting Wednesday to ensure the change occurred. Trump thanked FIFA on Truth Social following the announcement, writing “Thank you to Fifa for doing what was right, and reversing a great injustice!”.

Group of Copenhagen Requests FIFA’s Explanation

The Group of Copenhagen sent an official request for written explanation to FIFA regarding the Balogun case. The watchdog operates under the Council of Europe’s Macolin Convention, a multilateral treaty addressing match-fixing through international law changes.

Christian Kalb, a gambling industry expert, told The Athletic that irregularities flagged may stem from factors aside from manipulation. “The major problem is when there may be a conflict of interest and potential inside information on those issues,” Kalb noted. Particularly in this instance, the timing of the Polymarket market opening before FIFA’s official announcement raised questions about whether traders possessed advance knowledge of the disciplinary decision.

FIFA defended its position when contacted, standing by its Integrity Task Force conclusions. The governing body described its findings as “the result of a collaborative effort by a large number of independent expert groups”.

FIFA Defends Its Integrity Task Force Findings

FIFA released its official position on Tuesday, one day before the Group of Copenhagen published its summary identifying seven potential irregularities. The governing body’s Integrity Task Force concluded operations after monitoring betting markets and on-field activity in real time across all 104 matches. Liam Rich, FIFA’s Senior Integrity Manager, characterized the effort as providing “a strong framework during the FIFA World Cup 2026 for sharing intelligence, assessing potential concerns and coordinating a timely response”.

How FIFA’s Monitoring Process Works

FIFA centralized the collection of betting-monitoring reports and other relevant data provided by task force members during the tournament. This information was subsequently analyzed and shared among task force members in line with operational procedures. The collaborative nature enabled an experienced, coordinated assessment of and response to any alert or indication of potential match manipulation.

The task force included an extensive roster of international organizations. Members comprised the AFC, CAF, Concacaf, CONMEBOL, UEFA, the OFC, the United States Soccer Federation, the Canadian Soccer Association, and the Mexican Football Federation. Government and law enforcement participation included the FBI, INTERPOL, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, and the Council of Europe. Industry partners consisted of Sportradar, the International Betting Integrity Association, the United Lotteries for Integrity in Sports, IC360, and Genius Sports.

Why Two Task Force Members Reached Different Conclusions

Both FIFA and the Group of Copenhagen participate as members of the same Integrity Task Force, yet they announced contradictory findings within 24 hours. The Council of Europe confirmed that analysis from the Group of Copenhagen issued seven yellow notices and analyzed 12 major controversies relating to integrity risks. FIFA’s official statement made no mention of these alerts.

The discrepancy remains unexplained in official communications. Sources noted it was unclear why a mismatch existed between FIFA’s official statement and that of the Group of Copenhagen. The Group of Copenhagen has requested a written explanation from FIFA regarding specific cases, particularly the Folarin Balogun incident.

FIFA World Cup Betting Reaches Record $240 Billion

Global wagering on the tournament reached £39.71 billion, establishing the competition as the largest sports betting event in history. This figure represents a substantial increase from the £27.80 billion placed during the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.

The surge stems primarily from the tournament’s expansion from 32 to 48 teams, resulting in 104 matches compared to 64 in Qatar. Financial services firm Macquarie projected punters placed approximately £397.08 million per match. The growing sports betting market in the United States contributed significantly, with 65% of the American population now able to gamble on sports, up from 40% in 2022.

Prediction Markets Process $50 Billion in June Alone

Kalshi posted £24.62 billion in total trading volume during June, a 70% jump from May, with sports contracts accounting for 85% of activity. World Cup-specific volume on Kalshi reached £17.81 billion. Polymarket’s international exchange set a monthly record at £8.58 billion, while its regulated U.S. platform logged £2.78 billion, nearly double May’s total. Rothera processed £1.59 billion in its debut month.

Traditional U.S. sportsbooks were projected to handle between £2.22 billion and £3.41 billion across the tournament. The Group of Copenhagen stated prediction markets “allow betting on a very wide range of events, often anonymously and using payment methods that are difficult to trace”.

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The casino operator announced financial results for the second quarter of 2026 that fell below analyst expectations. Las Vegas Sands missed both profit and revenue estimates for the quarter. The company attributed the under performance to unusually weak VIP hold during the period.

These results contrast sharply with the first quarter of 2026, when net revenue reached $3.59 billion, marking a 25.3% increase compared to the prior year quarter. Operating income for Q1 2026 stood at $904 million, up from $609 million in Q1 2025. Net income for that quarter totaled $641 million, representing a 57.1% year-over-year increase.

The company’s consolidated adjusted property EBITDA in Q1 2026 hit $1.42 billion, showing a 24.6% rise from the previous year. Interest expense for that quarter amounted to $188 million. The weighted average debt balance during Q1 2026 was $16 billion, compared to $13.86 billion in the prior year period. The weighted average borrowing cost decreased to 4.6% from 4.9%.

Las Vegas Sands maintained its quarterly dividend at $0.30 per common share during the first quarter. The company also repurchased $740 million of common stock, approximately 13 million shares at a weighted average price of $56.64.

What Caused the Stock Price Decline?

Multiple operational challenges converged to impact Las Vegas Sands’ second-quarter performance, particularly in its Macau operations. EBITDA in Macau suffered from a low VIP rolling hold of 1.35%, creating a potential $87 million shortfall. President and Chief Operating Officer Patrick Dumont noted that Macau’s $566 million in EBITDA would have been $7 million lower without a higher-than-expected hold.

Management acknowledged strategic missteps in the region. “We are not aggressive enough as it relates to customer reinvestment,” stated Robert Goldstein, noting the company believed their buildings would suffice but proved wrong during the quarter. As a result, the team changed their approach to increase market share and EBITDA.

The FIFA World Cup significantly disrupted operations. Visitation to Marina Bay Sands and Macau properties decreased as high-value patrons shifted attention to the tournament. This impact appeared most pronounced in June, affecting gaming volumes throughout the quarter.

Operating expenses rose due to investments in additional table operating hours and enhanced customer service, which pressured short-term profitability. Intense competition in Macau’s premium segment required continuous investment in luxurious suite products and service levels. In Singapore, EBITDA would have been $107 million lower if hold had performed as expected.

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Washington Court Issues Preliminary Injunction Against Kalshi

King County Superior Court Judge John McHale ruled that Washington state demonstrated a likelihood of success in proving Kalshi violated multiple state statutes. The court found violations of the Washington Gambling Act and the Consumer Protection Act, determining that Kalshi operates, develops, manages, finances, and profits from illegal gambling activities in Washington. Judge McHale characterized the platform’s operations as conducting unlicensed gambling games, bookmaking, and professional gambling with respect to betting on sports, elections, politics, entertainment, and culture.

The court rejected Kalshi’s central defense that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws. Judge McHale ruled that regulation of gambling and regulation of futures markets constitute different fields of regulation, noting that Congress did not intend to supersede state jurisdiction in addressing gambling regulation. The judge determined that complying with Washington law would not prevent Kalshi from complying with federal requirements.

Attorney General Nick Brown stated that Kalshi promoted illegal betting on sports, elections, measles cases, witness testimony during child trafficking hearings, and natural disasters. The court found that Kalshi’s advertising claiming to offer “legal betting” in Washington likely misleads reasonable consumers. Judge McHale directed both parties to confer on injunction terms by Aug. 3.

How Kalshi’s Legal Battle Extends Across Multiple States

Kalshi prediction markets face legal challenges spanning more than 20 states, with lawsuits filed from multiple directions. Eight lawsuits originated from state gambling commissions and Indian tribes accusing Kalshi of operating an unlicensed sports gambling platform, while six suits represent Kalshi on the offensive, suing state regulators and contending they fall outside state gambling rules. Five additional complaints came from individuals arguing Kalshi worsens gambling addiction, with four seeking class-action status.

Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel filed suit earlier this year, arguing the company violated the Michigan Lawful Sports Betting Act. Judge Rosemarie Aquilina granted a temporary restraining order on June 29, stating Michigan’s most vulnerable citizens would suffer immediate and irreparable harm from being exploited by Kalshi’s sports betting operation masquerading as an investment opportunity.

Nevada presents a notable case trajectory. District Judge Andrew Gordon initially granted a preliminary injunction in April 2025 barring state gaming authorities from enforcement. Conversely, Judge Gordon dissolved the injunction in December, holding that certain sports-related contracts closely resemble traditional sportsbook bets and fall within Nevada gaming laws. Carson City District Court Judge Jason Woodbury subsequently extended the ban, describing Kalshi’s sports contract wording as indistinguishable from placing a bet at a state-licensed sportsbook.

Federal courts in Tennessee, Ohio, Connecticut, and New York temporarily paused state enforcement while preliminary injunction motions remain under consideration.

New York Ruling Reinforces State Authority Over Prediction Markets

U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres denied Kalshi’s motion for a preliminary injunction that would have blocked New York state regulators from enforcing gambling laws against the prediction market platform. The ruling, issued late Tuesday, found that Kalshi failed to demonstrate likelihood of success on preemption claims under the Commodity Exchange Act.

Torres pointed to a provision in Section 2 of the Commodity Exchange Act stating that nothing in the section shall supersede or limit jurisdiction conferred on other regulatory authorities under state laws. The judge wrote that this provision evidenced Congress did not intend to regulate so broadly as to exclude all state gambling laws from regulating transactions involving swaps.

Kalshi sued New York officials in October 2025 after receiving a cease-and-desist letter for offering sports gambling without a license. Torres noted that New York law requires any gambling enterprise offering sports gaming to obtain a license from the Gaming Commission. The judge emphasized nothing prevents Kalshi from obtaining a license pursuant to New York law.

Governor Kathy Hochul and Attorney General Letitia James issued a joint statement Wednesday morning celebrating the victory. Kalshi is appealing the decision to a higher court. Meanwhile, New York has proposed the ORACLE Act legislation designed to regulate prediction exchanges more tightly. The CFTC preemptively countersued the state to block enforcement of any laws claiming to usurp federal authority.

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The integration was made possible through Aristocrat Interactive, with players now able to enjoy one of Yggdrasil’s most iconic titles, Valley of the Gods. Additional Yggdrasil games are expected to roll out in the coming months.

Originally launched in 2017, Valley of the Gods remains one of Yggdrasil’s most successful and popular games worldwide. The 5×5 slot, inspired by Ancient Egypt, features exciting mechanics including multipliers, respins, extra lives, and hidden treasure blocks, delivering an engaging player experience that has resonated with audiences globally.

Aurora Armaro, Head of Region LATAM & USA, at Yggdrasil, said:

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Ricardo Cornejo Rivas, Vice President of Online Gaming at Caesars Digital, said: 
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Heinrich and New Mexico Tribes Unite Against Unregulated Prediction Markets

Heinrich sent the letter on Friday to Republican chairmen of the Senate Committees on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs and Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry. The letter urges both committees to amend pending legislation that deals with digital assets, specifically the CLARITY Act and the Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act. Eleven other Democratic senators joined Heinrich in this effort, including Tina Smith of Minnesota, Maria Cantwell and Patty Murray of Washington, Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, Mark Kelly of Arizona, Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Alex Padilla and Adam Schiff of California, Jacky Rosen of Nevada, Brian Schatz of Hawaii, and Gary Peters of Michigan.

The coalition backing this action extends beyond elected officials. Sixteen New Mexico tribes and pueblos signed the letter, coupled with support from the Indian Gaming Association and National Congress of American Indians. These tribal governments seek specific amendments prohibiting Commodity Futures Trading Commission-registered entities from listing prediction contracts that resemble sports bets or casino-style gaming products.

This push reflects broader concerns in the Senate about prediction markets. A separate group of 16 Senate Democrats, led by Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, previously called on the CFTC to tighten regulation of these platforms. Senators warned that event contract trading volume has grown exponentially over the past 18 months.

How Prediction Markets in New Mexico Threaten Tribal Sovereignty

Platforms like Kalshi operate outside the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act framework, which positions them as what Brookings Institution scholar Patrice Kunesh describes as an existential threat to tribal gaming. The conflict centers on jurisdictional authority: prediction markets claim protection under the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC oversight, arguing their sports event contracts qualify as derivatives rather than gambling subject to IGRA regulations.

Three New Mexico pueblos and one tribe filed suit in May 2026 against Kalshi, with the Mescalero Apache Tribe, Pojoaque Pueblo, Sandia Pueblo, and Isleta Pueblo alleging the platform violates gaming compacts and federal law. The plaintiffs noted Kalshi provides anyone over age 18 access to sports gambling, while New Mexico tribal casinos require patrons to be 21 or older under state compacts and federal law. Consequently, this age disparity removes regulatory guardrails tribes maintain to deter gambling addiction.

Tribal gaming generates more than $40 billion annually, funding healthcare, housing, education and social services in Native American communities. New Mexico tribes reported generating more than $266 million in adjusted net win during the last quarter of 2025. For comparison, Kalshi alone pulled in more than $2.5 billion on sports event contracts in September 2025, coinciding with the NFL season start.

What Legislative Amendments Could Protect Tribal Gaming Rights

The coalition requests two specific amendments to the CLARITY Act. The first would prohibit federally regulated platforms from offering contracts tied to sports or casino-style outcomes. Sports event contracts have been the main source of conflict with state regulators and tribal gaming interests, which argue that the products amount to unlicensed sports wagering.

Tribal leaders contend prediction markets undermine sovereignty by relying on the fiction that sports bets are “swaps,” violating government-to-government agreements tribes have built with their states. The revenues threatened fund healthcare, education, housing, public safety, language preservation, and essential government services.

The second provision would clarify that the CLARITY Act does not override existing tribal, state or federal gaming laws, including IGRA. The bill does not expressly say that it preempts IGRA, but tribes want Congress to eliminate any potential ambiguity before it becomes law. Sports betting qualifies as Class III gaming under IGRA and is permitted if included in a tribal-state compact.

IGA’s concern centers on cryptocurrency-based prediction markets using an expanded federal framework to strengthen arguments that they may offer gambling-like products nationwide without complying with tribal or state gaming laws. Without proposed protections, CLARITY “could unintentionally allow cryptocurrency-based prediction markets to expand online gambling nationwide”.

The campaign expanded in February, when IGA brought together tribal leaders, the National Congress of American Indians, commercial gaming groups and consumer advocates for a congressional briefing. The coalition announced a task force to coordinate legislative, regulatory and legal responses.

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Prediction Markets Capture 27% of World Cup Sports Betting Volume

Weekly trading volumes across prediction markets reached £11.52 billion for the first time last week, while outstanding bets hit a record £1.27 billion for the third consecutive week. The data underscores the rapid expansion these platforms experienced during the tournament’s opening phase.

Kalshi dominated the space, accounting for 62% of total trading volume compared to 28% for Polymarket. The platform posted £24.62 billion in total notional trading volume in June, representing a 70% jump from May. Sports contracts comprised approximately 85% of this trading activity. World Cup-specific markets alone generated £17.81 billion on Kalshi, with £5.88 billion occurring in June before group rounds concluded.

Polymarket recorded £8.58 billion in overall trading volume on its international exchange, setting a new monthly record. Its regulated US platform separately logged £2.78 billion, nearly double May’s total.

Rothera, a joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group launched in June, processed £1.59 billion in its debut month. The platform already accounts for 7% of the US prediction market. According to Artemis, Rothera’s weekly trading volumes exploded from £1.67 million to £639.30 million since Robinhood began routing wagers to the exchange in late May.

How Prediction Markets Gained Competitive Advantage Over Traditional Sportsbooks

Federal regulation under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission allowed prediction markets to operate across nearly all US states, while traditional sportsbooks remained restricted to jurisdictions with legal sports betting. Kalshi operates legally in every state except Nevada, consequently giving the platform access to major markets like California, Texas, and Florida where conventional wagering remains prohibited.

The structural differences between prediction markets and sportsbooks created additional advantages. Prediction markets function as peer-to-peer exchanges where participants trade against each other rather than against a bookmaker. Companies generate revenue through commissions and transaction fees instead of customer losses, removing the inherent conflict of interest present in traditional sports betting.

Lower operational costs translated to better odds for users. Prediction markets charge nominal fees on winning trades compared to the substantial vigorage built into sportsbook pricing. Platforms rarely impose monetary trading limits or ban successful participants, in contrast to sportsbooks that routinely restrict profitable customers.

ADI Predictstreet secured status as the Official Prediction Market Partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026, providing unprecedented legitimacy and visibility. Financial services companies entered the space, with Robinhood offering markets powered by Kalshi and ForecastEx. JB Mackenzie, Robinhood’s vice president of futures and international, noted the platforms provide access to asset classes previously unavailable to retail participants.

Traditional Gambling Companies Struggle Despite Prediction Markets Growth

Flutter Entertainment and DraftKings experienced substantial stock declines as prediction markets gained traction. Flutter fell 50% over six months, while DraftKings dropped 45% from its February 2025 peak. The companies lost £9.53 billion and £9.53 billion in market capitalization respectively. Year-to-date performance through June showed Flutter down 14% and DraftKings declining 22%.

Revenue growth projections reflected mounting pressure from emerging competitors. Analysts forecast DraftKings revenue at £5.40 billion for 2026, representing just 12% year-over-year growth. Flutter anticipated £14.53 billion in revenue, likewise up 12%. DraftKings reported a 31% year-over-year decline in gross gaming revenue for the week ending January 25.

Flutter responded by investing £238.25 million into FanDuel Predicts, launching the platform nationwide through a partnership with CME Group. The application became available to trade in all 50 states, though sports markets remained restricted to select jurisdictions. Jefferies estimated FanDuel Predicts could generate £99.27 million in annual revenues not yet reflected in company guidance.

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New Jersey Casinos Post $528 Million in Gaming Revenue

Atlantic City’s nine casino properties demonstrated sustained momentum throughout 2026, with May recording $627.10 million in total gaming revenue across casinos, racetracks, and their partners. This figure represented a 2.0% increase from May 2025’s $614.70 million. Casino win specifically reached $265.60 million in May, marking a 0.1% gain and establishing the market’s strongest May performance in over a decade.

The year-to-date results through May revealed continued expansion, with total gaming revenue climbing to $2.93 billion, reflecting 7.2% growth from the corresponding period in 2025. Slots revenue generated $199.40 million in May, posting a 2.4% year-over-year increase, while table games revenue declined 6.1% to $66.20 million. This divergence illustrated the relative stability of electronic gaming compared to the more variable nature of table game operations.

February 2026 produced $520.80 million in total gaming revenue, representing a 7.4% increase from $484.80 million recorded in February 2025. New Jersey casinos maintained a streak of twelve consecutive months generating over $500 million in revenue. Atlantic City casino win reached $202.90 million in February, experiencing a marginal 0.3% decline attributed to weather conditions more severe than recent years.

The state collected $79,269,552 in taxes from June’s gaming activities, while May generated $80,731,149 in tax receipts.

Sports Betting Revenue Trails Casino Operations by 9-to-1 Margin

Sports betting operators processed $917 million in wagers during June 2026, representing a 16% increase from June 2025. However, revenue plummeted 37.7% year-over-year from $91.9 million to $57.3 million. The dramatic divergence between rising handle and falling revenue stemmed from patron winnings associated with NBA Finals and FIFA World Cup games, combined with aggressive sportsbook bonus promotions.

The statewide hold collapsed to approximately 6.2% in June, meaning operators retained just over $6 for every $100 wagered, compared with 11.6% during the same month in 2025. This represented the lowest monthly hold recorded in New Jersey’s sports betting market.

Year-to-date performance through June revealed broader challenges, with operators generating $513 million in revenue, down 7.1% from $552 million during the first half of 2025. Online operations accounted for $503.5 million of that total, declining 6.1%, while retail sportsbooks contributed $9.4 million, a 39.2% drop. The year-to-date handle reached approximately $5.7 billion.

Sports wagering generated $107.3 million in taxes through June, including $12.5 million during the latest month. Despite record betting volume during the World Cup, the 19.75% tax rate produced lower receipts because of reduced operator revenue.

Online Gaming Delivers Two-Thirds of New Jersey Tax Revenue

Internet gaming operations now account for 65% of total gaming taxes collected by New Jersey when combined with online sports wagering revenue, fundamentally altering the state’s fiscal relationship with the casino industry. During June 2026, online casino revenue alone produced a $60.40 million tax haul, approximately double the combined receipts from land-based casino operations at $18.90 million and sports betting at $12.40 million.

The state collected approximately $1.01 billion in total gaming tax revenue during 2025, representing a 26.1% increase from the previous year. This surge reflected both market growth and the implementation of increased tax rates on internet-based gaming activities. Of that total, $801.50 million flowed into the Casino Revenue Fund, which supports programs exclusively benefiting senior citizens and disabled residents. An additional $123.70 million funded economic development and community projects in Atlantic City, while $82.60 million entered the general fund.

New Jersey enacted legislation effective July 1, 2025, raising the online casino tax rate from 15% to 19.75%. The state collected $883.20 million in casino taxes and fees during 2024, up from $796.00 million in 2023. By the same token, the higher tax rates on digital platforms drove substantial revenue gains despite sports betting’s declining operator margins.

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Gottheimer Introduces Bipartisan Bill Requiring Facial Recognition for Age Verification

U.S. Rep. Josh Gottheimer introduced bipartisan legislation Wednesday requiring online sportsbooks and prediction markets sports betting platforms to implement facial recognition technology for age verification before users place bets or trades. The proposed Facial Recognition to Protect Children Act mandates platforms to estimate user age by analyzing facial structure and patterns, either during account login or before placing a wager.

According to Gottheimer’s office, the technology would not store user identity or personal biometric information. The congressman emphasized the failure of current systems, stating that kids can log into a parent’s, older sibling’s, or friend’s account and place bets with no verification at all.

The bill garnered bipartisan support from Representatives Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.), Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.), Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Mich.), Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.), Darren Soto (D-Fla.), Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.), Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.), and Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.). Van Drew noted the legislation would add another safeguard to prevent children from accessing betting platforms and provide parents additional peace of mind. Rep. Ritchie Torres stated the honor system has failed kids, allowing underage users to bypass basic age restrictions with zero accountability.

If enacted, the legislation would apply to all online sportsbooks and prediction market platforms nationwide.

Why Current Age Verification Systems Fail to Prevent Underage Gambling

Prediction markets sports betting platforms operate with a minimum participation age of 18, while state-regulated online sportsbooks require users to be 21 years old. This disparity exists because prediction markets claim oversight by the federal commodities regulator rather than state gaming authorities, effectively sidestepping strict verification requirements. Accordingly, these platforms operate without know-your-customer protocols, anti-money laundering safeguards, integrity monitoring, or responsible gaming requirements that legal operators must follow.

The most basic age verification method requires users to input their date of birth or click a button declaring they meet age criteria. This honor system proves ineffective, as minors fraudulently insert valid dates rather than their own. Indeed, many betting platforms never request identity verification during signup. Several users reported that only one sportsbook among multiple platforms asked for photo identification, and verification occurred only after requesting withdrawals.

Minors exploit these gaps through multiple methods. Shared devices store saved passwords and payment information, allowing children to access gambling platforms through unlocked smartphones or tablets. For instance, high school students across entire baseball and football teams use sports betting accounts, often borrowing identification from older siblings, cousins, or friends to create accounts. Globally, 17.9% of youth under 18 gambled in the past 12 months, with 10.3% gambling online. North America shows the highest regional prevalence at 33.7%.

Industry Leaders and Advocacy Groups Rally Behind Stricter Safeguards

Prediction market platform Kalshi and advocacy group ParentsRISE have backed the legislation. Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi, stated that protecting kids represents a priority at his company, noting they already self-regulate with measures to keep minors off the platform. Mansour emphasized that responsibility cannot rest with a single entity and must become an industry standard.

ParentsRISE expressed gratitude for action addressing harms from predatory betting apps and prediction markets to children, specifically highlighting Meta’s partnership integrating Kalshi’s real-money betting markets into Threads. The advocacy group characterized these products as engineered for compulsive use.

Kalshi has proactively implemented several safeguards beyond regulatory requirements. The platform activated Face ID by default for users with enabled devices, introduced selfie requests for higher-risk individuals, promoted two-factor authentication, and launched an ID Check feature. The company also created Inner Circle, allowing users to grant friends and family access to view trading activity with real-time alerts, plus Health Check, which provides deposit limit recommendations based on activity patterns.

Subsequently, Kalshi announced a $2 million investment in the National Council on Problem Gambling focused on expanding consumer education campaigns and promoting responsible trading. Meanwhile, the NBA, PGA Tour, and NCAA have called for regulators to raise the legal age for prediction markets sports betting to 21.

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Tennessee Sports Betting Hits Record $460 Million in June 2026

The handle jumped 30% to $456.10 million in June 2026, while state tax revenue rose 30% to $8.44 million. This growth contrasted sharply with May 2026, which recorded year-on-year wagering growth of just 1% to $446.20 million. Stephanie Maxwell, deputy director and general counsel for the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council, attributed the spike to timing factors.

“Summer can sometimes be a slower time in general. Once the NBA season is over, kind of waiting for the NFL season to start and college sports to start back, so I imagine this is related to the World Cup and the interest in that,” Maxwell explained. Sportsbooks reported World Cup betting surged past expectations, with US hype driving action.

Tennessee’s revenue collection model sets it apart from other jurisdictions. “We are the only state that taxes the handle, which means basically there’s just a flat tax amount that is wagered,” Maxwell noted. “We are not taxing the revenue, so it doesn’t matter if there are wins or losses. It’s just how much is wagered, and that’s what we tax”.

Maxwell emphasized sports passion drives betting interest beyond monetary considerations, stating bettors seek “a little bit of skin in the game”. With the World Cup continuing through the weekend, wagering totals could remain elevated through July.

How Tennessee’s Handle Tax System Captured World Cup Revenue

Tennessee initially implemented a 20% tax on gross gaming revenue alongside a mandated 10% hold requirement for operators. The hold mandate proved problematic, as 9 of 11 registered sportsbooks failed to meet the threshold in 2022, resulting in $25,000 fines for each operator. The state repealed this minimum hold requirement and transitioned to a 1.85% tax on total handle rather than revenue.

This structural shift positioned Tennessee as the only U.S. state to tax wagering volume instead of operator profits. Sportsbook operations face an additional 0.25% federal excise tax on handle, deducted before state tax application. Tennessee sports betting generated approximately $107.60 million in total state tax revenue during 2025, reflecting a 10.7% increase from the previous year.

The handle-based taxation model delivered substantial benefits during the World Cup betting surge. As the only state taxing volume, Tennessee remained immune to hold rate fluctuations that affected revenue-based tax structures in other jurisdictions. Tax collections for fiscal year 24 reached $87.60 million. Revenue distribution allocates approximately $86.10 million to the Tennessee Lottery’s education fund, $16.10 million to local governments for emergency services and infrastructure, with the remainder supporting mental health and problem gambling programs.

Tennessee Profits While Other States Lose Revenue

New York sportsbooks experienced a revenue crisis despite record wagering volume. Total handle climbed 36% to $2.26 billion in June 2026, yet revenue plummeted 44% to $117 million. The 5.2% combined hold represented an all-time low for New York operators. Kansas faced an identically troubling scenario, with sportsbooks holding just 3.90% in June 2026. Revenue collapsed 60% to $6.90 million, while promotional deductions consumed 41% of gross winnings. State tax collections fell to $691,041.

Tennessee sports betting avoided this revenue trap entirely. The handle tax structure protected state collections from hold rate fluctuations that devastated other jurisdictions. Sportsbooks nationwide celebrated substantial profits when the USA lost to Belgium in the World Cup round of 16. Caesars Sports reported the match as one of the biggest soccer wins in company history. Bettors backed the American team relentlessly, with 81% of money supporting USA to qualify and 78% of handle on match betting. One Circa Las Vegas bettor wagered $750,000 on USA to advance at -130 odds. The simultaneous elimination of USA and Portugal cleared the two largest liabilities from sportsbook futures books.

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Illinois Sports Betting Handle Declines to $906 Million in May

The Illinois Gaming Board reported that online and retail sportsbooks generated $1.14 billion in wagers during May 2026, representing a 10.2% decrease from the same month in 2025. This figure marked the largest year-over-year decline operators experienced in 2026, with May becoming the fourth consecutive month to register a handle decrease compared to the previous year.

Betting activity showed a sharper contraction than revenue figures suggested. Illinoisans placed 21% fewer bets compared to May 2025, though this represented an improvement over April’s 25% reduction in wager count. Despite these declines, Illinois sports betting maintained its position as the nation’s second-largest market by handle and achieved nine consecutive months exceeding $1 billion in total wagers.

Revenue metrics painted a more resilient picture. Sportsbooks reported adjusted revenue of $118.9 million, posting only a 1.7% decrease from May 2025. A solid 10.4% hold percentage helped operators maintain profitability levels, with monthly revenue remaining above $100 million since July 2025.

Tax collections exceeded prior-year levels, generating $52.5 million for the state compared to $45.2 million in May 2025. The per-wager tax alone contributed $10.4 million, while Cook County received $1.3 million from the $66.7 million operators collected from Chicago-area bettors.

What Factors Contributed to May’s Betting Slowdown?

Seasonal patterns played a primary role in May’s wagering contraction. Sports betting experiences natural cyclical variations, with handle peaking during NFL season and the Super Bowl between October and February, spiking again during March Madness, then declining through spring and summer months. Football season drives the majority of annual betting activity, and May falls squarely within the industry’s weakest period.

Pennsylvania recorded similar trends, with handle dropping 9.1% during the same month. This broader pattern suggests structural factors beyond Illinois-specific conditions. The slowdown that began during late 2025 has taken on a more systemic character across U.S. markets.

Operator strategy shifts accelerated the decline. Flutter Entertainment, parent company of FanDuel, reported that FanDuel exited 2025 with a smaller customer base than anticipated, which continued to pressure first-quarter 2026 performance as average monthly player totals declined 6% year over year. Sportsbooks moderated marketing spending as investors demanded earnings growth instead of pure customer acquisition.

Customer retention challenges intensified as promotional incentives decreased. Some bettors wagered less frequently or exhausted bankrolls more quickly as operators focused more heavily on profitability. The online gaming sector experiences churn rates around 40% in the first week after deposits, with many customers placing only one bet before departing.

How Do Industry Experts View Illinois Sports Betting Future?

Industry analysts project Illinois sports betting will remain among the nation’s largest markets despite current headwinds. Chris Grove, partner emeritus at Eilers & Krejcik Gaming, noted that the largest sportsbook markets will largely correlate with the largest states, positioning Illinois favorably for long-term growth.

State officials adopt a more cautious stance. The Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability warned against placing too much faith in wagering growth, citing uncertainties including delayed participation levels, COVID-19’s lasting effects, and competitive pressures from neighboring gaming options. Democratic state Rep. Stephanie Kifowit emphasized that gambling revenue shouldn’t be depended upon as a stable source for state budgets.

Problem gambling concerns complicate the market outlook. Data shows 68% of adult Illinoisans reported gambling in the past year, with online sports betting experiencing significant growth. Treatment providers conducted 13,037 assessments in State Fiscal Year 2021, representing a 440% increase over the previous year. Experts observe rising addiction among young people who conduct all activities on their phones.

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