US Senate Bans Prediction Market Betting for Members, Staff
The US Senate prediction market ban for members and staff took effect immediately after a unanimous voice vote Thursday, marking a regulatory response to insider trading concerns. The resolution passed without opposition on restricting congressional access to prediction market platforms. Lawmakers acted swiftly following high-profile scandals that exposed vulnerabilities in the US prediction market system. In one instance, a trader profited more than $400,000 on wagers involving the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Subsequently, a U.S. soldier connected to Maduro’s capture faced charges for unlawful use of confidential information. The measure addresses growing concerns about federal officials potentially exploiting privileged information through prediction market betting, a practice Senate leaders deemed inappropriate for government personnel.
Senate Passes Unanimous Resolution Banning Prediction Market Betting
Senator Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) sponsored the resolution that modified the Senate’s standing rules. The Ohio Republican delivered pointed remarks on the Senate floor, stating that senators engaging in prediction markets while collecting taxpayer-funded paychecks represented a clear abuse of power. Moreno emphasized that any senator using public office as a side hustle betrayed constituents they swore to serve.
The resolution prohibits senators from entering financial deals where outcomes depend on whether specific events occur. An amendment by Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) expanded the measure to include Senate staff members. Moreno warned that ethics investigations stemming from prediction market activity would end political careers, establishing a deterrent effect.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) endorsed the measure as a “no-brainer,” urging House Speaker Mike Johnson to implement identical restrictions. Schumer stated that Congress must never become a casino where members gamble on wars, economic crises, or elections, which would destroy representative government principles. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) announced plans to introduce a companion resolution in the House.
Senators Todd Young (R-Ind.) and Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) introduced separate legislation to ban all federally elected officials and government employees from using insider information for US prediction market bets.
Insider Trading Scandals Expose Risks in US Prediction Markets
Three congressional candidates faced penalties after Kalshi discovered them betting on their own elections. Mark Moran, running as an independent in Virginia’s U.S. Senate race, placed a $100 bet on himself and received a fine exceeding $6,200. Matt Klein, a Democratic state senator seeking a U.S. House seat in Minnesota, and Ezekiel Enriquez, a Texas Republican congressional candidate, each wagered less than $100 on their own candidacy. Klein faced a fine of over $530, while Enriquez paid more than $780. All three received five-year suspensions from the platform.
Rep. Mike Levin, a California Democrat, criticized the penalties as insufficient, comparing them to a parking ticket. Klein later cosponsored Minnesota legislation to ban most prediction market wagering, including election outcomes.
In another case, U.S. Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke wagered approximately $33,034 on Polymarket using classified information about Operation Absolute Resolve, which captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Van Dyke made roughly 13 bets between December 27, 2025, and January 26, profiting approximately $409,881. Authorities charged him with unlawful use of confidential government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making unlawful monetary transactions.
Suspicious trading patterns emerged during the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. Sixteen accounts each made $100,000 accurately predicting U.S. airstrikes timing on February 27.
How Prediction Market Platforms Are Responding to Senate Action
Both major platforms welcomed the Senate resolution. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour stated on X that he applauded the Senate for passing the measure, noting Kalshi already blocks members of Congress and enforces against insider trading. Mansour called the action “a great step to increase trust in our markets by making it an industry standard” and urged the House to pass similar legislation. Polymarket expressed full support, stating their Rulebook and Terms of Service already prohibited such conduct, while codifying it into law represented progress for the industry.
Earlier in March, both platforms announced preemptive measures. Kalshi said it would block politicians, athletes, and other relevant people from betting on their own campaigns or sporting events. Polymarket imposed guardrails to address insider trading and market manipulation.
Kalshi criticized proposed legislation banning sports on prediction markets, arguing such restrictions would push behavior offshore where no regulation exists. Spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana stated the announced restrictions “go beyond what the stock market does”. She pointed to Kalshi’s enforcement after a YouTube star MrBeast employee traded on video outcomes, calling it “the system at work”.
